Ok so it’s not the NYSE…yet.
The FIFA World Cup is driving high volumes on all the major sports trading exchanges. spread betting firms and bookmakers. Indeed the Mirror reports that Betfair has already matched over £1bn (ie approaching $2bn) on the tournament and we still have the biggest games to come.
I did some very back-of-the-envelope calculations (based on the number of different markets available and a rough estimate of the average amount being match on each) and I wouldn’t be surprised if Betfair alone matches as much as £2 bn by the time the tournament finishes.
And again, the complexity of the potential arbitrages available on the very extensive variety of outcomes during the tournament on which there are traded markets, certainly mirrors many of the risk arbitrage strategies typically seen in more traditional financial markets.
And in the wisdom of crowds category, the traders on Betfair clearly had the right idea, picking Germany to beat Argentina before the start of the game yesterday despite most bookmakers having Argentina as favorites.
