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Markets for the Digital Generation

To name or not to name…

Blogged in Miscellany, The sixth paradigm by Sean Monday August 18, 2008

I’ve just spent a bit of time going through the various suggestions you’ve all had for our new company name. I really appreciate the input, which also includes a few email entries as well for a couple people who were too shy to commit to their suggestions publicly. ;)

Unfortunately, there hasn’t been one yet that has really stood out and elicited that “Yep, that’s the one!” moment… nonetheless the exercise has been very useful, not the least for giving us more confidence that we haven’t missed an obvious trick and underlining just how hard it is to come up with a good, original, meaningful name without degenerating into bullshit jargon bingo and/or having it not fit on a business card.

We haven’t closed the book yet (but will when the next milestone comes up in the next fortnight or so) so any last minute inspiration is still welcome. If however you are stumped, and want a new riddle to solve, we are trying to think up a punchy and pithy tagline that would work with Nauiokas Park to frame the venture and that plays on the double meaning of ‘Park’. Along the lines of:

Nauiokas Park : …where ideas and capital meet…

…but better!

Giant opportunity: Emergent ICT-enabled empowerment

Blogged in Ideas, Tools, Flat World, The sixth paradigm, Africa by Sean Monday August 18, 2008

My desert island business tool would have to be my netvibes homepage: by allowing my to efficiently follow and ingest over a hundred different feeds covering the entire breadth of my varied (and some would say eclectic) interests it has become the substrate upon which much of my work is done. It’s my deck.* Themes emerge and disappear, are reinforced, modified, diverted, consolidated. And sometimes enough interesting pieces of the puzzle emerge, pushing me to anchor them in my thoughts by writing a post here.

I’ve written a number of times on the potential for mobile telephony to shift the paradigm in Africa, but post the Safaricom IPO this is perhaps more of a mainstream view today and needs less repeating.

What is perhaps less talked about is the potential to combine increasing mobile and broadband penetration with robust and inexpensive local networks to transform outcomes even in the most remote environments. One of the major challenges facing the African continent is building out mobile coverage outside of urban areas and increasing access to broadband internet pretty much everywhere. White African frames the problem eloquently here:

While it’s good to talk about mobile phone penetration, I was a lot more interested in seeing the discussion going on around mobile broadband internet and how that is the next big move in Africa for the operators. Passing data, not just voice, is the battleground of the future in Africa - and all the carriers are fighting to position themselves to win.

This is important and I think the tipping point has (or is about to be) passed, but for a variety of economic, political and regulatory reasons it is difficult to predict how and when a more robust and ubiquitous broadband access will be available to most Africans. In the mean time, it would seem to me that a great opportunity exists to build (tens of) thousands of small, local, ‘community’ networks using a combination of technologies such as wireless mesh and femtocells connecting mobile phones and sturdy “appliance computers” (via Emeka):

Aleutia’s currently working to integrate ZigBee into our desktops, a new wireless mesh-networking technology that doesn’t drain batteries like Wi-Fi does and has a range of up to 1km. In areas where connectivity is expensive and hard to obtain, this would allow one computer to share its Internet connection with hundreds of others, and, in areas without Internet connectivity, would enable free email, file transfer, and messaging over an enormous geographic area.

All powered by renewable (solar, wind, micro-hydro) local power sources, which besides being more robust and sustainable (in the economic sense), should also help underwrite the capital costs of building the network through sales of imputed carbon credits.

These networks would be valuable on their own - providing an information and communications backbone for education, health and markets for the local community - but also would serve as excellent platforms (in terms of building knowledge and acceptance of these tools) ahead of the local network being tied into the rest of the world via broadband internet when the infrastructure and pricing permits. In fact, by building up the network infrastructure in this way - ie by creating a network of networks - Africa has a chance to actually create a more robust infrastructure than currently exists in most of the developed world, without the need to re-engineer; another leapfrogging opportunity…As John Robb continues to powerfully argue, “smart local networks” are crucial to creating a more resilient societal infrastructure, tolerant to faults, accidents and attacks - black and white swans alike:

Most of the local loops (from telco fiber to cable company coaxial) currently in place and/or being installed in the US are dumb (I suspect it is the same globally). They simply route data from local customers to regionally clustered corporate server farms and then outwards/back. This means that any disconnection (physical or logical fault) between local customers and these remote systems will result in a complete cessation of service. To correct this deficiency, communities need to start to think more like a corporation: security of data services are considered central to a company’s survival. So, as part of future negotiations with cable/telcos, communities should request that companies allow them to piggyback on their “dumb” networks to create a smart local loops.

Just the sort of infrastructure that is needed in the all too often hostile (political and natural) environments in which these networks need to operate. And it ties in well with the idea of a resurgent localism, a theme that motivated Stowe to create a new blog, /Ground:

One of the most salient trends — one that I think trumps others — will be the rise of localism. As nation states increasingly falter, and lose relevance we will see people shifting their sense of belonging away from mass organizations and political constructs, like nationalism and global religions.

Layer on top (of these networks) the best that Web2.0 has to offer in terms of social software (wikis, twitter, blogs, freebase, etc .), along with solutions unique to Africa (FrontlineSMS, Ushahidi, etc.); mix in the strong culture of communal and family identity and… voila! You have a potentially very powerful and transformational piece of kit. Alpha this, beta this, build, iterate, build again… and I’m pretty sure that once you’ve industrialized the process, you will have a very exportable proposition: a turn-key solution for installing a smart (and green) local network.

In fact, I think this is a very real and interesting commercial opportunity. Maybe even a candidate for an X-prize in Global Entrepreneurship? I’d love to find a credible, motivated team that has the skills and the vision to make this happen and take us one step closer to the sixth paradigm. Looking forward to seeing the business plan!



*Cyberspace Deck: Also called a “deck” for short, it is used to access the virtual representation of the matrix. The deck is connected to a tiara-like device that operates by using electrodes to stimulate the user’s brain while drowning out other external stimulation. As Case describes them, decks are basically simplified simstim units. Another way to think about it might be like a lineman’s telephone—a tool used to actively maneuver through cyberspace rather than to passively perceive pre-recorded physical and emotional sensations (like a simstim unit).

Peak Hierarchy

Blogged in Ideas, Business Environment, Management, The sixth paradigm, Peak Hierarchy by Sean Thursday August 14, 2008

Regular readers will know that I have a healthy skepticism with respect to the supposed benefits of ever-increasing size in corporations and in particular with respect to financial services firms. Given the preponderant importance of human capital to creating and maintaining a competitive advantage in financial services, the exponential increase in complexity arising from imposing traditional hierarchical organizational paradigms on tens or hundreds of thousands of employees quickly outweighs the benefits of economies of scale in infrastructure and financial capital in today’s hybrid / universal banking and insurance giants.

Until now however, I have been without an elegant and robust metaphor for this thesis. But when I read Michel Bauwens’ essay (thanks to a pointer from Gordon Cook) comparing the current fundamental, secular changes in societal organization driven by the revolution in information and communications technologies, I knew I had found my meme:

…there is also the emergence of a new form of horizontality, no longer local and disconnected and unable to compete with hierarchical forms, but able to scale globally, through the global coordination of a multitude of small teams, outside of a logic of command and control. I think this is the significance of peer to peer (and peer production specifically), and that it points to the concept of Peak Hierarchy.

In my view, we have already reached the point in history, where ‘peer to peer plays’, i.e. interconnected horizontality, outcompetes hierarchical and diagonal plays. The two examples we have are of course Linux and Wikipedia.

In other words, we have reached a point in history, a true turning point, where a new form of social organization, starts to outcompete hierarchy. (But of course, just as early hierarchy was a hybrid with the system out of which it arose, so the new early forms of p2p are hybrid forms within the dominant system)

If this is true, and I of course believe it is, then we have indeed already reached Peak Hierarchy. It should be historically situated at the mid-point between the moment that Linux became the dominant technological force in the internet, and that the Wikipedia was outreading and outproducing the Brittanica. From that moment on, faced with these undeniable examples of success, the scramble for adaptation to distributed forms of organization, to integrating participation in the very heart of hierarchy, has started to make itself felt. There has been a magnetic reversal of the poles. The chaotic attractor has become the peer to peer mode. Hierarchy is still dominant, and will stay so for a determinate amount of time, but social forces are already looking elsewhere, mostly unconsciously, but nevertheless.

This is unprecedented, and is changing the whole course of human history. Of course, it will take time to play out, see how difficult it was to realize the truth of Peak Oil, how adamantly the forces of biospheric destruction fought and are fighting back. But we can also see that it is ultimately a losing battle for them.

Not only does this thesis capture the essence of the issues facing the prevailing global political and economic paradigm but it neatly frames the diminishing returns characteristic of the twilight of a golden age and the accompanying bewilderment of the existing elite who either fail or refuse to understand the tectonic changes inevitably undermining their comfortable sinecures. Shades of the fall of the Roman Empire? Listen to Michel’s take on this:


Not only is the concept of ‘Peak Hierarchy’ an important pillar in our investment thesis, but it also directly colours how we think about building and organizing our own firm over the coming years. We are convinced that this will give us an additional competitive advantage, especially as many of our potential competitors are likely to continue operating more traditionally for many years to come.

So I’m adding it as a category here at the Park Pardigm and expect to read more of my thoughts on its meaning and implications on business and finance going forward.

More (weather) derivative goodness.

Blogged in Climate, Insurance, The sixth paradigm by Sean Wednesday August 13, 2008

As you may recall, a couple months ago Weatherbill announced a partnership with Priceline, underwriting a promotion they ran that would reimburse the cost of your holiday package if it rained more than half the days during your stay.

It’s always important to put theory to the test and so I was happy to see that the promotion seems to be a success:

In June, 12% of Priceline’s site traffic clicked on a promotion. While the Sunshine Guarantee promotion may attract only a niche audience (0.2% of Priceline shoppers), those who do click on this promotion are highly likely to convert – an impressive 24% of Sunshine clickers will complete a booking. Despite attracting relatively few clickers, it resonated with its audience and led to strong conversion rates, showing just how effective a smaller, targeted promotion can be.

I’m sure we’ll see more and more of these sorts of embedded derivatives in weather-sensitive consumer products. While you may go to the time and effort of directly hedging your wedding, the average person - even if they were aware of an easy-to-use product like Weatherbill - probably will be too busy/apathetic/forgetful to hedge something smaller - like a day out golfing. But embed the coverage into the product (or at least make it as easy as ticking a box) and I think demand will be very high. The days of “NO RAIN CHECKS” are surely soon behind us…

Intelligent Financial Engineering

Blogged in New and different, Business Environment, The sixth paradigm, Africa by Sean Wednesday August 13, 2008

One of the main failings of much (most?) mainstream reporting and commentary on financial markets and financial services is that all too often it reduces the issue to a black or white caricature of the reality. Absolutist headlines are more compelling I guess… And at the risk of sounding elitist, I suspect that too many journalists writing on the subject of financial derivatives and financial engineering more generally, are not sufficiently comfortable with the subject to form more nuanced analyses. It must also be said that ‘Wall Street’ has been content to perpetuate the aura of mystery that surrounds derivatives; this attitude was a natural consequence of their traditional business model which was predicated on information arbitrage - aka ‘knowing more than your customers.’

I have to admit, I can understand why - given the egregious behavior of so many ‘financial engineers’ over the past 5 years or so, and the very real and unfortunate consequences now being borne indifferently by guilty and innocent alike - the public might rally around the pitchfork journalists and the witches’ coven they claim to expose. And my frustration is aggravated as this reminds me that through their reckless actions, a bunch of greedy, cynical, cowardly so-called professionals have put in peril the very real and tangible benefits modern financial technology can bring to the global economy and human society; something I passionately believe in. Think of the jerks you knew when you were a kid: the ones that didn’t know when to stop, the ones that pushed until the adults were forced to intervene, the ones that ‘ruined it for everyone else’. (I suspect it’s not just a metaphor: it wouldn’t surprise me if many of the worst offenders were these kids growing up…)

And so, given this context, I hope you’ll understand why I was especially heartened when I read about JPMorgan’s simple but innovative use of carbon derivatives to drive sales of more efficient cooking stoves in east Africa:

JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) is quietly pushing the boundaries of the carbon market - a sprawling international experiment to reduce the greenhouse gases that cause global warming - by subsidizing the distribution of efficient cooking stoves in poor countries. Because the new, improved stoves save fuel and produce less carbon dioxide than traditional stoves, they generate so-called carbon credits that can be sold to companies or individuals who want to offset their own emissions.

The business is complicated, controversial and potentially very profitable.

How profitable? If all goes according to plan, JPMorgan will expand its support for cook stoves from Uganda into Kenya, Ghana, Cambodia and beyond. Each stove is estimated to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by two to three tons a year; each ton generates a credit worth $10 or $15 a year, and potentially more, for the bank.

“If you can distribute 10 million stoves, you are talking about a substantial tonnage of carbon,” says Odin Knudsen, who oversees JPMorgan’s carbon finance business. Do the math - you could be looking at a business with modest costs and between $200 million and $450 million a year in revenues.

But even here we run into the biases I highlighted above - “…complicated, controversial…” How? Why? Completely unsubstantiated. But I suspect most readers will read this and involuntarily nod their heads in agreement, conditioned to accept these assertions as given. Complicated? The author misses the irony, given that within the article the trade is succinctly and accurately described. I suspect most readers understood. Controversial? How so? To whom? The author fails to back this up with any real evidence or even a compelling example of what could go wrong. (Even though there are a few fairly obvious ways such an initiative could ‘go off the rails’, that would be worth reporting.) I assume it is just a knee-jerk assumption that any big bank making money from poor people is doing something evil.

Putting that meta-analysis aside…what a great initiative. While only scratching the surface, this kind of transaction is typical of what I believe we will see more and more of as we move to the sixth paradigm. The really exciting part is how this illustrates what is possible when you start to marry global financial markets to local, micro-economic outcomes. Take it one step further and you can start to provide credit secured on individual carbon allowances, to finance efficient capital investments. Or imagine not just selling a stove, but a fix-price fuel contract in tandem. And where the stoves are used for heating, embedding weather derivatives in the contract as well.

I hope they have much success with this initiative. I look forward to hearing more about it in the next few years (and maybe getting involved in some way…) I just hope the individuals at JPMorgan driving this project weren’t those immature jerks in high school! ;)

War of the Roses: first 24 hours.

Blogged in Miscellany, The sixth paradigm by Sean Friday August 1, 2008

A heartfelt thank you to the early entries into the ‘help-name-the-new-company-sweepstakes’! Not sure we have a winner yet but some great ideas and food for thought for sure. And my old friend Tres has definitely broken into the lead in the most ‘funny’ name category but unfortunately has been tripped up by the always nasty plausibility clause… (I feel for you man, I really do…)

Bet The Farm Investments LLP

Loaded Dice Investments LLP (A Risk Management Fund…)

Over/Under Investments

…although if it were up to me I might just go for Loaded Dice (without the Investments.) Amy?

Anyhow, still a week or so to get your suggestions in; I’ll send an other update next Friday.

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