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Markets for the Digital Generation

The rest of my life.

Blogged in Miscellany, * by Sean Friday October 13, 2006

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
—Alan Kay

Nine months ago I read a book - a fascinating book - by Po Bronson, called “What should I do with my life?” I’m not sure why I bought it, probably some Amazon.com driven serendipity…I read it over the Christmas break, found it very enjoyable but nothing more.

But the Earth turns and butterflies flap their wings and different futures emerge from the ever constant forward flow of time. And here I find myself at one of those crossroads in time. Time to jump down the rabbit-hole:

“… thought Alice, and she went on. “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”
“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cat.
“I don’t much care where –” said Alice.
“Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the Cat.
“– so long as I get somewhere,” Alice added as an explanation.
“Oh, you’re sure to do that,” said the Cat, “if you only walk long enough.”

Today is my last day after over six years at Dresdner Kleinwort (nee Benson, then Wasserstein…) and it’s been pretty damn interesting. I had a lot of fun. Worked (too!) hard. Met some fantastic people. Made some good friends. Those are things I will miss.

Sometimes the light’s all shinin’ on me;
Other times, I can barely see.
Lately it occurs to me …
What a long, strange trip it’s been. - J. Garcia

But the City is a small place. The markets are a small place. Hell, the planet is a small place (it’s flat don’t you know.) And so I know I’ll surely be crossing paths in the coming months and years with many of my friends and colleagues at Dresdner whatever I end up “doing with my life.”

Anyhow, I’m going to take a bit of time to ponder that question, have some fun and just generally recover from too many years of investment banking. ;)

And of course I’ll still be here, warbling on about this or that, with a rant thrown in for good measure from time to time.

Everything you can imagine is real. –Pablo Picasso

Time for imagining.

It’s the Hippocratic Oath Bill, not hypocritic

Blogged in Trading, betting, etc., *, Sports, Business Environment by Sean Thursday October 12, 2006

You could see how ol’ Senator Frist could have gotten them confused. I mean they are so close. Hippocrate. Hypocrite.

“Hmmm… Do no harm. Hide behind false pretences. Now which one was it? …”

Anyhow it does not seem that Dr. Frist is a Park Paradigm reader…or if he is, the legalize, regulate and tax message failed miserably to resonate with him. The Economist does a great job articulating this position in a leader this week (although with the parochial “our-way-or-the-highway” mindset seemingly so prevalent on the Hill these days, a remonstration from such a foreign, high-faluting journal such as The Economist will probably been worn as a badge of honour by the Deliverance gang in Congress…):

Internet gambling is good for consumers. Too bad America wants to ban it

THE spread of the internet has made the online gambler king. The emergence of large online gambling companies has slashed gaming operators’ margins and driven up payout ratios for gamblers. And the punters have embraced it in their millions, especially in America, where illegal gambling has long flourished. Last year 12m Americans placed about $6 billion in online bets, half the world’s total.

You might have hoped politicians would greet such a demonstration of popularity with moderation—welcoming online gambling’s benefits and curbing its inevitable excesses. Instead they have put all their chips on red. Last weekend Congress passed a bill that will stop banks making payments to online gambling sites, adding to an already formidable legislative arsenal that outlaws most online gaming.

Given America’s tolerance of many other forms of gambling including horse racing and casinos, that looks like hypocrisy. Worse still, the new bill is self-defeating. It will leave the people determined to bet—the very group most vulnerable to gambling’s excesses—more open to predation from the unscrupulous online gambling joints that lawmakers most fear.

In an accompanying article the Economist also points out that there is now a real possibility that the oligopoly US gaming providers will now be able to buy up the (largely UK and European) leading internet firms at substantially lower valuations and then lobby for a legitimization of their activities:

Even America’s casinos, which long campaigned for the prohibition of online gambling for fear it would cannibalise their business, have begun to lean towards legalisation because they see attempts at prohibition as futile. Many now think that online offerings may help them attract customers. That realisation seems to be reflected in the valuations of American casinos: a group of private equity investors is offering just over $15 billion to buy Harrah’s, the world’s largest casino operator.

One of the more ironic consequences of the new law is that it may have made British-based online gambling companies vulnerable to takeover by America’s casino groups. Not only have the firms’ share prices fallen heavily, but their withdrawal from the United States has legitimised them as prey to American operators seeking to quickly obtain online expertise and knowledge of overseas markets.

If such acquisitions come to pass, it seems more than likely that American online gambling firms would begin to lobby American politicians to legalise online gambling. Thus, America’s prohibition may ultimately have the unexpected consequence of moving the country one step closer to legalising online gambling.

Far fetched? I doubt you’d find many layers on odds longer than 2 to 1…

Grant Clelland, Deputy Editor of the Financial News also chimes in with an eloquent articulation of the great American double-standard:

When a continental European country takes action to protect its industry from external competition, it is called economic nationalism. When the US does the same, we are meant to believe it is about preserving the fabric of society.

…Politically inspired legislation is hardly confined to the US, but the double standards on display are rivalled only by the French government. The law’s backers may rail about the pernicious effects of online gambling, but they seem happy with gambling itself. Groups such as Las Vegas Sands, Harrah’s and MGM Mirage are world leaders. Yet there has been no bill proposed to congress calling for the demolition of Atlantic City or Las Vegas.

But the bigger issue has nothing to do with online gaming, however much you may dislike the business and disagree with the almost obscene sums made by some of its executives at the expense of deluded punters. It is the latest example of US economic nationalism and, most damaging of all, the creep of extra-territorial legislation. This scores easy points at home without any perceptible short-term economic impact on US companies or their employees. Think back to the shameful row over the US congress blocking the acquisition of some of its ports by a company that had the misfortune to be based in Dubai (an ally of the US). Or to the tentacles of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act stretching around the world.

If it were a German firm blocking a US biotech company from selling genetically modified seeds in Europe, Washington would shout “protectionism”. Indeed, last week, it did: the US urged the European Union to speed up its process for approving new GM products, blaming “unjustified and politically motivated delays”.

The apparent urge of the US administration to apply double standards and make the country as unfriendly a place as possible for international businesses is proving increasingly embarrassing to its companies and investment banks. Economic nationalism and extra-territorial regulation – in Europe or the US – should be resisted. It may win elections, but in the long run it undermines economic growth. In the case of gambling, it is likely to have as little permanent impact as prohibition, which in the US lasted just 13 years.

Yet another example of regulatory capture and oligopolistic behavior in the ostensible land of free markets. But just as London is slowly but surely positioning itself as the premier world centre for international finance - and this despite not having the massive advantage conferred upon New York and Chicago by having the world’s largest economy as a home market, the UK government has clearly sensed an opportunity to position itself as the “world leader” in Internet gambling - and indeed as witnessed by the fantastic growth of firms such as IG Index and CMC Markets, it will almost certainly lead innovation in the broader transformation and democratisation of markets in risk management and transference in the coming decades. As reader Ralph points out in his comment here, this spirit of innovation and risk taking (management) has prevailed in the UK for centuries and was at the heart of the founding of the Lloyd’s insurance market in the 17th century.

That same spirit is evident in the rise and rise of the world’s fastest growing exchange - an exchange that does not allow any custom from the US - and is based in the UK. The LSE? Aim? No…Betfair. Having just released their annual results for the year ended April 2006 (ie before the World Cup in June which alone generated 11 million trades), the private company continues to grow, with revenues up 36% and pre-tax profits up 65%. With a reported 160,000 active monthly users and approaching 1 million total registered customers, the exchange executed 1.3 billion trades during the year. That is on average 3.5 million trades per day (365 days per year) or almost 2500 trades per minute 24 hours a day. Without a single trade coming from the largest economy in the world… Not bad. Especially when you consider that - unlike their more traditional ‘financial’ exchange brethren - they operate 24/7 and indeed weekends are their busiest times. Ask any CTO of a financial exchange or investment bank if they would fancy not having 52 weekends a year of downtime to maintain the infrastructure.

I can already hear the cries from Wall Street rushing to the defense of the history and stature of its markets. Markets that transformed the world economy and proudly flew the capitalist standard, helping to create the engines of growth that have given us previously unknown wealth and prosperity. Well sure. But I wonder if Senator Frist had been around at the time, if he wouldn’t have chopped down that Buttonwood Tree and put an end to the scruffy and speculative scrum that became the NYSE before it “dashed dreams and frayed the fabric of society.”

Hippocratic Bill…
h i p p o-cratic.

Completely off topic: Hallam Foe.

Blogged in Miscellany, * by Sean Friday October 6, 2006

Had the good fortune and pleasure to be invited by Hugh to come along to a screening of Hallam Foe.

It should be hitting theaters early next year. It reminded me of Harold and Maude. (Which is a good thing, at least in my book.) But Scottish. Sophia Myles is especially well cast and does a great job.

If you liked Harold and Maude, or Ghost World, I think you’ll enjoy this.

Trade Hurricanes not gas (more)

Blogged in People, Climate, * by Sean Tuesday September 26, 2006

Following up from this post last week, the following headline from the FT caught my eye:

Fewer storms please hedge funds

By Andrea Felsted, Insurance Correspondent
Published: September 24 2006 21:59 | Last updated: September 24 2006 21:59

Hedge funds that have piled billions of dollars into reinsurance are poised for bumper returns, amid increasing expectations of a benign hurricane season.

Hedge funds could still be hit with heavy losses as the Atlantic windstorm season does not finish until the end of November, while an earthquake could happen at any time.

…um I guess she didn’t interview Nick and Brian for this story…

Then again, the readers of Dealbreaker.com didn’t think you should ‘blame it on the weather’ (actually 21% blamed ‘Canada’…they must be watching too much South Park! ;) )

Terrence and Philip

Needles and haystacks

Blogged in Tools, *, Business Environment by Sean Thursday September 21, 2006

The FT this morning reports on a new search/news aggregation service aimed at the financial trading community aka ‘hedge funds’ (is it just me or are pretty soon are we going to be referring to any business involved in trading assets as a hedge fund?…) I won’t bother to link to the FT (too bad for them, change your paywall policy folks) but basically it is touted as a revolution in information gathering, digging out the nuggets that exist below the radar screen of the conventional or mainstream press.

Sounds like they have some smart people and decent technology so I’m sure it will be useful however I suspect the really smart money traders who have known how to search blogs and use RSS readers and tagging and social-bookmarking services etc. will be a bit annoyed that any old dinosaur trader will be (in theory) able to find the same gems of information buy paying up for Monitor110’s services. And to be absolutely frank, the ground Monitor110 is breaking isn’t completely virgin; firms like Clearforest and Relegence have been offering similar services for some time now and digital generation traders can mash-up their own intellingent news filters either from scratch or using tools like Netvibes.

Edward Hadas over at breakingviews.com (another paywall, but really good analysis site founded by Hugo Dixon) likens it to using the ‘wisdom of crowds’ to trade. I’m sorry Edward but actually I think you’ve got this one wrong. ‘Wisdom of crowd’ - mining would be things like Marketocracy and SocialPicks. Monitor110 in my opinion is all about finding the needle in the haystack; finding the individual voice or nugget that escapes crowd amplification. Finding the kernel before it becomes a snowball. Where I do agree with him however is the paradox of diminishing returns: the more people find the needle the more difficult it will be to monetise. Or paraphrasing Dash - ‘if everybody is special, it really just means that nobody is…’

Dash

I don’t want to sound too negative however; if it does what it says on the tin, I think it could be a very useful tool and if they have smart technologists and market savvy management which definitely seems to be the case on the face of it, they should be able to continue to innovate incrementally and stay ahead of the obsolescence curve at least for a few more years. One to follow for sure.

If a disruptive technology is developed…

Blogged in Ideas, Trading, betting, etc., *, Sports by Sean Wednesday September 20, 2006

…outside of the Northern California and no one in the Valley had already thought of it is it still a disruption?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge admirer of the entrepreneurial and innovative and generally open-minded spirit that reigns on the West Coast but I’d be lying if the implicit belief of its denizens that everything is thought of first or done best in the ‘valley’ isn’t a just a bit exasperating…

Ross and JP simultaneously sent me a link to Mr. Arrington’s breathless post entitled: “PicksPal Could Disrupt Sports Betting Markets.” Pul-lease… The sports betting market was well and truly disrupted (in the Google sense of the word) 5 years ago (!!!) when the world (ahem…except for the US, bless) was introduced to Betfair. In the United Kingdom. I guess I shouldn’t be too harsh as Betfair has chosen to take a very conservative approach and has never accepted any business from the US, but follow-on competitors like TradeSports have so he shouldn’t be ignorant to the whole idea of a sports exchange. And given the wealth of predicition market sites and ideas (however hobbled the actual markets themselves might be by the luddite American polity), his wide-eyed appreciation of PicksPal is at best a case of post first, search later.

I am saved the effort of a technical critique of the relative merits and/or lack thereof by the wise crowd that has already contributed a large number of concise and accurate criticisms in the comment to the original post, but I would like to take the opportunity to (once again) highlight the blatant hypocrisy brought forth by this example.

Am I the only one who finds it ridiculous that sites like PicksPal are obliged to play for points and prizes instead of money? Here’s a happy customer quote on their homepage:

“It came down to the last field goal banging off the left upright, but I bagged an HDTV. Awesome.”- GoodLow, Dallas

Hello? Anyone ever hear of eBay? So does old GoodLow need to sign a waiver promising not to take his HDTV and monetize it on eBay? I hope the folks at PicksPal give me some shares in the company for giving them the idea to tack-on an eBay selling service onto their site and automate the process for their customers, taking a nice commission along the way. Also implicit in their business model is the ‘fact’ that tens of millions of Americans bet on sports often (think March Madness, Super Bowl, etc.) in office pools and amongst friends but do so illegally. I guess there is no appetite to throw half the country in jail, probably not a big vote-winner… As far as I can tell the fabric of American society has yet to be irreparably destroyed by Marge taking Pittsburg and the points on Sunday…but perhaps the fact that much of this illegal trading - oops sorry betting - happens in the office and not while people are “in their bathrobes” is of huge comfort to Congressman Frank Wolf and his colleagues.

If you haven’t clicked through to read the TechCrunch post (linked to above), it highlights that PicksPal will be selling the picks of their best predictors. Aside from the problems of randomness (see the TechCrunch comments for explanation) assume there really are people that are expert at picking winners and losers. Unless they move to Las Vegas, the US does not allow them to make a legitimate living from their expertise. Because they are knowledgeable about say,basketball rather than interest rates or precious metals or natural gas (sorry couldn’t resist!), the US government doesn’t allow them the opportunity to start a hedgefund, live in Greenwich and live happily ever after on 2 and 20. ;)

Hey it’s not just the US either, France is getting into the prohibition game too, arresting the joint-CEOs of Bwin a couple days ago.

Of course it’s all about money. Incumbents wanting to keep their rents. Governments wanting their vig. Legalize, regulate and tax. It worked (-ish) for financial and commodity markets. It will work for these markets. The faster it gets done the better off all will be. Hell, the tax take from legitimizing March Madness alone might close the US budget deficit!

Web 2.0 Banking?

Blogged in People, Communication, *, Business Environment by Sean Tuesday September 19, 2006

First Direct’s new CEO Chris Pilling gives a great engaging and friendly interview published as a podcast on their website. Despite being part of the giant HSBC group, they seem to manage to keep their unique cultural and organizational identity and remain leaders in bringing innovation to retail banking.

Podcasts are useful but don’t really constitute a new paradigm for banking. It’s a good start, but will be interesting if the new guy can build on this foundation and stay out in front of the pack.

Trade hurricanes not gas

Blogged in Trading, betting, etc., * by Sean Tuesday September 19, 2006

Ok hindsight is obviously 20/20 but from reports coming out over the past couple days it would seem that the reason that Amaranth has lost billions of dollars (yes billions) in the natural gas market is because their traders decided to make the same bet that last year made them hundreds of millions. ie That supply disruptions caused by hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico would cause the price of gas and certain calendar spreads to soar.

Aside from it being a crowded trade - who wanted to be short heading into hurricane season this year? - this would seem to be a good example of bad basis risk. If the goal was to speculate on the number and strength of hurricanes in the Gulf, there should be a better way.

Of course then again if you look at it that way, you might be loathe to pay a manager 2-and-20+ , would be easier and cheaper just to place the bet yourself.

Interested in the nuts and bolts of electronic trading?

Blogged in Markets, Tools, * by Sean Friday September 8, 2006

Then you could do worse than adding David’s blog to your RSS feed or favorites. I’ve had the privelege to work with David for the last 6 years and he is one of the most knowledgeable people in this space, especially when it comes to fixed income markets. Welcome to the blogosphere David!

Burgenstock Notes, Day 3

Blogged in Markets, Trading, betting, etc., *, Sports by Sean Friday September 8, 2006

Peter Bennett (HCL Technologies) opened the afternoon session with ‘Capital Markets – What next?’ or ‘Where are the gorillas?’:

- exponential growth (in trading), this is a positive feedback phenomenon
- unchecked this can be very dangerous for any system and can lead to instability (bubbles and crashes)
- did a neat simulation using iThink modelling tool
- by 2010 most trading will be computer-to-computer
- order-to-trade ratio is growing exponentially, transaction rates are becoming more granular (order-book changing constantly) – will lead to high risk of running out of capacity

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This was followed by a panel discussing the viability of exchange traded credit derivatives:

Richard Stuart-Reckling (Morgan Stanley)
- claims operational risk issues are being solved
- is customer financing more or less advantageous? (OTC vs ET)
- still some important technical issues are not yet resolved (devil is in the detail)

Gary Smith (ICAP)
- welcomes new products, increasing volumes benefit all
- would need to be supported by the dealers to be successful

Robert Ray (CBOT)
- US is behind with respect to the development of listed credit product
- market needs more transparency
- US dealers very much against the introduction of a listed product
- opportunity exists to introduce clearing into OTC markets
- is ultimately inevitable

Brendan Bradley (Eurex)
- focus is on credit indices, already low margin/high volume
- exchange traded contracts are complimentary to OTC markets
- very close to launching a contract

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The last panel of the day - and the conference - was ‘Sports trading revisited - coming of age?’ and included yours truly (!)

We were extremely fortunate to have Michael Mainelli moderate the panel. His seminal paper “Betting on the future: Online gambling goes mainstream financial” published in 2004 is required reading for anyone who wants to understand the interelationships between betting, trading and insurance and the potential of these new online betting markets to fundamentally transform financial markets over time. I was joined by Mark Davies (Betfair), Chris Shillington (Cantor Spreadfair) and Dr. Jorg Franke (Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG) who was the driving force behind creating the Deutsche Terminbörse (German Futures and Options Exchange, later becoming Eurex after merging with the Swiss derivatives exchange.) He reminded the audience that when he was launching DTB 16 years ago, he met significant resistance with many people accusing him of “running a casino” (obviously with a pejorative bent!) Today, Eurex is one of the most successful financial exchanges in the world and I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone in the market who thinks the markets would be better off without it (well excluding perhaps the folks over at Liffe! ;) ) For those of you not familiar with financial futures markets, the long term government bond future known as the Bund contract is one of the most traded contracts in the world; indeed in 2005 Eurex traded over 1.25 trillion contracts.

I tried to make two main points. One is that gambling vs trading is an irrelevant frame insofar as the distinction between the two is made as a function of the underlying (sports, shares, commodities, …) and so the emotive response to condemn ‘casinos’ is not based in rational reasoning. The second was that ‘betting markets’ were better placed (than traditional financial markets and exchanges, mini contracts notwithstanding) to aggregate individual/consumer/SME risk appetite and that the granularity and heterogeneity gained by including these participants in global risk markets was beneficial for everyone. Indeed, I see betting markets as potentially highly complimentary to the major financial exchanges as they could act as aggregators and increase interest, liquidity and volumes for all.

There was also a question as to the virtue / value of sports as an underlying. The panel made the point that there were very real economic benefits to providing markets in sporting outcomes and Michael cited a number of specific real world examples (sponsors hedging performance risk, etc.) Like it or not, sports is a multi-hundred billion dollar business around the globe.

One member of the audience made a very good point that perhaps it would be useful to try and reframe the debate away from ‘moralistic’ or values based judgements to educating the public as to the potential benefits and drew a very interesting parallel to the NYSE who, according to him spent 50 years (from 1920s to the 70s) gaining acceptance for the value of secondary equity markets. Hopefully this time it won’t take 50 years!

I hope that the established financial and exchange community will embrace our arguments and help rather than fight the development of these new event markets. It is intellectually bankrupt not to. Indeed fantastic initiatives like the CME’s successful launches of weather and property derivatives should help underline the hypocrisy latent in the hostile attitudes that continue to exist - especially in the US Congress - to ‘betting’ exchanges and markets. I’m sure the folks on the hill will listen to the CME, will they be enlightened and take leadership on this? I’m sure a CME Super Bowl contract would be a success…

But given recent events, there is obviously some work to do. And someone needs to tell Congressman Frank Wolf that you can trade shares in your bathrobe (click here to watch Jon Stewart at his finest, you won’t be disappointed) too…