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Markets for the Digital Generation

Repeat after me - technology is a core strategic asset.

Blogged in Sports, Management by Sean Tuesday September 25, 2007

Another great idea from Rory Devine CTO of Betfair. As technology moves to the heart of the enterprise, driving strategy, this kind of initiative is smart. (Although someone should tell the author that Scott McNealy has been replaced by MLP as Sun CEO!) Of course Betfair is a ’sixth paradigm’ company and has this understanding of technology programmed into its corporate DNA. Remember, CEO David Yu was previously CIO. How long will it be until a major bank, securities firm or financial exchange is headed up by a former CIO? How many major banks, securities firms or exchanges even include the CIO in the most senior management team and / or Board? (If I had an analyst I’d actually get her to try to answer this last question…maybe I should mechanical turk it?) And how many would at least have the CIO in the succession planning mix?

Btw, for those still wondering if Betfair is a ‘real’ exchange or a ‘real’ market, here’s another piece of evidence: almost $30mn traded on the ‘Rugby World Cup Winner’s’ market alone to date (and we haven’t even reached the knock out stages), $20mn of that on the favorites - New Zealand - including one $4.3mn trade at 1.71 that didn’t even move the market (!) (at time of writing 1.69-1.70)

Why (online) exchanges are beneficial, part 431.

Blogged in Sports by Sean Friday August 10, 2007

Earlier this week, the world of tennis was shook with what for all intents and purposes looks like a fixed match - in financial markets what would be called a case of insider trading - (as reported by the Telegraph):

Tennis was at the centre of a major scandal last night after irregular betting patterns on a game involving world No 4 Nikolay Davydenko prompted the ATP to launch a match-fixing investigation.

Nikolay Davydenko pulled out of his ATP clash with long-shot Martin Vassallo Arguello promting Betfair to suspend betting ion the match
Nikolay Davydenko: his retirement aroused Betfair’s suspicions

Betfair, the internet betting exchange, took the unprecedented step of voiding £3.4 million of wagers placed on the Russian’s second-round clash against Argentine Martin Vassallo Arguello at the Poland Open on Tuesday after becoming concerned by an unusual drift in odds during the game.

Betfair were alarmed that there was a huge increase in the amount of money being placed on Davydenko to lose after he won the first set 6-2.

At the start of the match, punters were being offered odds of 20p for every £1 placed on No 1 seed Davydenko to beat the world No 87. But after the Russian won the first set, the odds lengthened to £2.30 for every £1 staked on him. Arguello won the second set 6-3 before Davydenko withdrew from the match in the third set with an injury, despite leading 2-1.

The irregular betting, coupled with the vast amounts of money wagered on the game, were enough for Betfair to suspend paying out on the match on Thursday evening. Following a meeting of their integrity investigators yesterday morning, Betfair voided all bets - the first time they have refused to pay out.

An investigation has been opened and while the presumption of innocence should be respected, obviously suspicions are focused on Davydenko and his entourage. While not exhaustive, I’ve been scanning the headlines surrounding this story and have been pleasantly surprised to not see a flood of shrill calls for the end of exchange markets like Betfair. Perhaps the common wisdom has finally come to accept the idea that online exchanges (in any market, in any instruments or outcomes) are ultimately the best weapon in the fight against corruption and illegal dealing. While the ease-of-use and liquidity they provide helps legitimate and illegitimate traders equally (and in this respect can fairly be said to make illegal dealing easier), the brutal transparency and audit trails intrinsic to these electronic trading venues massively increases the odds of identifying and prosecuting illegal trading quickly and efficiently. Indeed, by luring this sort of activity into the open (through the seductive ease of transacting on-exchange), I think platforms like Betfair will be one of the strongest drivers of eliminating corruption in sporting events - much as the rise of stock exchanges a century ago did much to marginalize and eliminate the most corrupt practices previously prevalent in financial and business markets. ‘Fixing’ is as old as sports itself, what is now different is there is a real opportunity to identify and catch the fixers, and almost in real-time.

Hedging sports risk.

Blogged in Sports by Sean Wednesday May 23, 2007

Perhaps now that the idea has - albeit obliquely - appeared in the Economist, the legitimacy of hedging economic outcomes linked to sporting events will start, ever so slowly, to be accepted. The article talks about how the number of viewers - and thus the value to advertisers - evolves during an event as a function of ‘time until end’ and ‘uncertainty of outcome’, and then goes on to quote a researcher from London’s Tanaka Business school thinking aloud about ‘contingent’ pricing:

Liverpool vs AC Millan 2005, Viewship, from The Economist

Broadcasters can capture some of this variation by charging advertisers on the basis of viewing figures. But ratings-based fees are retrospective and advertisers have to decide where to spend money ahead of time. Tanaka’s Stefan Szymanski thinks there is an argument for “contingent” pricing, whereby advertising slots for sporting events would be pre-auctioned, with bids depending on the score at each point in the game.

This is very much (part of) the point I was trying to make with the Google/World Cup/Sports Hedge vignette in the AmazonBay/Through the Looking Glass scenario I wrote two years ago, here is the relevant excerpt:

2014 (August) - Advertising rates for the World Cup final plummet as longshots Denmark and Iraq make it through to finals knocking out favorites Brazil and China. GoogleCorp’s stock sells off sharply until CEO Lachlan Murdoch reveals that they have hedged their exposure with €3.4 billion of payer positions on a basket of favorites in what is described as the largest ever single sports trade disclosed to date. The complex hedging strategy was designed by Allianz Sport Risk Solutions group and entirely executed using a proprietary algorithm on AmazonBay’s sports trading exchange.

The premise was that the ‘advertising infrastructure’ would be operating as a real-time dynamic market with GoogleCorp as the primary intermediary: buying and selling slots, balancing supply and demand in real-time, essentially performing a ‘market-making’ role for advertising assets. (As an aside, in this kind of world the pricing dynamics for advertising slots would be fascinating and resemble option pricing with similar issues especially wrt pricing close to expiry.) For the purposes of this example, I foresaw GoogleCorp having principle risk as well, more for the sake of simplicity (rather than adding another player to the scenario, say a hedge fund specialized in trading advertising slots…) So when both heavy favorites - each having vast and valuable home markets on their own, plus broad global followings - lose, say a 100-1 type outcome before the semis, the value of advertising slots for the final - now between two ‘minnows’ - plummets as both end users and speculators look to offload their positions. In the above scenario, GoogleCorp’s stock also sell off as the market believes it to be very long finals advertising slots and so exposed to the carnage in that market. However when the market finds out that this exposure had been hedged, the stock rebounds. The hedge in this case is decribed as a ‘payer’ on a basket of favorites; of course this is just swap market terminology for what would be called laying in the betting markets - essentially they have laid (or ‘bet against’ or ‘insured against loss’) a basket of favorites. As a simplified illustration, assume the hedge was just a simple bet that both China and Brazil would lose in the semi-finals and that the odds of this (as priced by the market) were 100-1. So for €3.4 billion of protection, GoogleCorp would need to pay €34mn of premium (their stake.)

So coming back to the idea of contingent pricing raised in the article, not only does this make sense (for both broadcasters and advertisers) but it can be enhanced considerably by bringing to bear the panoply of risk management techniques by using the liquidity and correlation provided by the underlying sporting market to create hedging instruments and incremental liquidity in the market for advertising itself (by facilitating arbitrage and speculation which should encourage additional ‘financial’ participants into the market.)

Um…who’s crazy now?

Blogged in Trading, betting, etc., Sports by Sean Monday March 5, 2007

Buttonwood reports on the emergence of new, exotic asset classes such as…the football transfer market. Ie essentially providing venture capital for the development of new football players:

The football idea involves providing money to second-tier clubs (not Chelsea or Arsenal) to buy stakes in younger players. The fund then reaps a share of the rewards when the player is sold later in his career (footballers generally become more valuable as they approach their mid-20s). Why should clubs agree to this? Because they are usually short of money and can buy new players only by selling existing ones. By creating shares in their footballers, clubs can realise some of the equity in their human assets, without damaging the prospects of the team.

Sports as alternative or exotic beta? Sure.

Just remember you heard it here or here first! ;)

The sports economy.

Blogged in Sports by Sean Sunday February 25, 2007

I’m sure if you were interested you could dig up some giant number worked out by a consulting or market research firm quantifying the size of the global (or regional or national) sports market - with varying degrees of inclusiveness (professional sports, sporting goods, etc.) as to what qualifies. (If you google ’size of global sports market’ you get 7 million plus entries…the first entry quantifies what appears to be the global market in just sporting equipment at $235 million per annum…) Anyhow the point is (one that I have highlighted previously) that sports is a very real and very significant industry sector in most if not all developed economies (and is growing very quickly elsewhere, especially in Asia.)

Promoting or discussing sports markets is not per se the core theme of this blog but is definitely a secondary thread, especially insofar as with the extraordinary development of traded activity on sites such as Betfair, it (sports) is a fantastic example of how combining information, communication and market technologies can transform any industry into a more transparent, tradeable and hedgeable proposition. So when I stumbled accross The Sports Economist blog (via a new blog entitled All Growth is Sexy), I thought is was worthwhile to bring to your attention: the economic issues it discusses are exactly those that would have relevance for actors in the sports markets in terms of risk management (on exchanges such as Betfair) and provide excellent context for my commentary on market mechanisms as applied to sports. Of course the crowning irony is that much of the focus on The Sports Economist is on US sports and due to the archaic legal and regulatory environment in the US, these are the actors least able to access relevant risk management tools. A not insignificant irony as it is clearly the world’s (economically) biggest sports market. And indeed perhaps if US legislators were exposed to more analysis like that found at the Sports Economist they would perhaps take a more rational and less emotional approach to sports trading (and by extension, trading or risk management of other ‘non-traditional’ risks.) So on the off chance that some of these leaders might stumble accross the Park Paradigm, I’ve added the Sports Economist to my blogroll…


I also stumbled accross the AllSportsMarket recently. They bill themselves as follows:

AllSportsMarket is an online financial exchange crafted after the same professional trading platform used by the gurus of Wall Street. You buy and sell issues in AllSportsMarket sports teams, players, and events with real money. Just like the real markets, you are competing against other players for real cash! You earn money from the rise and fall of prices along with dividend payouts!

Basically it appears to be an online real-money fantasy sports league. As someone who has never participated in such a game, I’m ill placed to say whether or not their product (markets and trading platform) is well-thought out, but thought it was another interesting manifestation of how economic risk in sporting markets might be traded and managed. (However I must say if I were a potential customer I wouldn’t be very reassured by the lack of information about the corporate identity and location of the service. I assume this is deliberate and reflects a fear of US prosecution despite the blunt assertion in the FAQ section that it is not a sportsbook and that it is not gambling but a “skill-based Player-vs-Player Game.” Raises the point again, that for anyone (government) worried about potential impropriety surrounding such a market, wouldn’t it be better to legalize, regulate and monitor?)

Parallels

Blogged in Trading, betting, etc., Sports by Sean Wednesday January 31, 2007

The Betfair IT department has once again been in the news for their impressive exploits building and managing one of the most robust and successful electronic markets on the planet (shhh don’t tell the NYSE!) Referring to the opening match of last year’s football World Cup:

On the day of England’s first match, 4.4 million bets were placed and only 20 took more than one second to process. It means 99.999 per cent of bets were placed in less than one second.

‘To get five nines is fantastic,’ says Devine. ‘The reason why performance is so important is that lots of activity is done on the site in a short timeframe.’

Last summer, Betfair worked with its database supplier Oracle to increase the target percentage of bets processed in less than one second from 99.1 per cent to 99.9 per cent.

Devine says estimating opportunity cost for delays in processing transactions is not an exact science, but he suggests the mathematics is impressive.

‘Reducing the amount of time it takes to process a bet by 0.5 seconds – on five million bets per day – saves 694 hours, or 28 days of total customer waiting time per day,’ he says.

I’d be interested in finding out how this performance stacks up against the major stock exchanges and financial futures markets. (Any readers that have this information to hand please feel free to comment.) In any event, I’d be surprised if Betfair didn’t stack up nicely.

The parallels with more ‘traditional’ exchanges or derivative markets continue to grow and mature. One parallel I find particularly compelling is the vibrant community of professional traders and trading solution providers that has arisen around the Betfair exchange; with automated and algorithmic trading solutions adding significant liquidity to the markets (and creating their own challenges in terms of managing traffic on the exchange.) This is something I’ve highlighted before. The founder of RacingTraders, one such software provider, eloquently describes why Betfair has enjoyed much success with traders:

In appearance Betfair was no different from the financial markets, the only difference was the underlying instrument which was being traded. Instead of buying and selling stocks or bonds, people were buying and selling bets on sports events. There was nothing stopping me from Laying a bet with one person at a certain price and then placing that same bet with somebody else at a slightly higher price, so long as I could read the short term direction of the market. The major advantages that Betfair had were how easy it was for anyone to get started and also how cheaply you could start learning. To get back into the futures exchanges as a trader takes capital and some hefty monthly bills on seat lease, round turns etc, Betfair immediately struck me as the poor man’s stock exchange, instantly accessible to anyone. Even their commission structure was better than the financial markets: Betfair takes a small percentage of your winnings instead of a fixed transaction fee based on Volume. I was free to trade huge volumes of ultra short term positions whilst trying for only single tick profits and was still able to make it pay.

In addition to trading systems like RacingTraders above and others like the Sports Trading Workstation and Bet Angel, there are many blogs that focus on discussing Betfair trading strategies and results, such as The Betfair Trader and WizardGold (the latter who interestingly comments both on sports and forex trading strategies and systems.) I will continue to look for connectors between these parallel (market) universes, and increasing signs of convergence, especially on the institutional front; in jurisdictions such as the UK, convergence on the retail (buy & sell) side is an already well established niche with providers from Betfair to IG Group offering a variety of options to trade both sporting and financial outcomes.

The markets change, the questions remain the same.

Blogged in Markets, Trading, betting, etc., Sports by Sean Wednesday January 17, 2007

From the Betfair forum, ‘Is it still worth betting on horses?’:

Backing, laying, trading, it doesn’t matter.

Having read the input from various gurus on here over the past few months, I’m beginning to wonder if any of them still bet on horses as a major part of making a living.

I ask because I’m trying to develop a winning (laugh) system for horseracing. If I’m wasting my time, would somebody please tell me and point me at snooker or darts or even football if that’s where the profits are to be had.

According to many on here, horseracing markets are now so accurate that there’s no percentage to be had.

Serious question. No offence intended.

Replace ‘backing and laying’ with ‘going long and short’, ‘horses’ with ’securities’, and ‘horseracing’ with ‘markets’…and what follows in this thread is an interesting debate on efficient market theory and whether or not one should believe in such things as hedge funds.

(btw please welcome Betfair founder Andrew ‘Bert’ Black to the blogosphere!)

It’s the Hippocratic Oath Bill, not hypocritic

Blogged in Trading, betting, etc., *, Sports, Business Environment by Sean Thursday October 12, 2006

You could see how ol’ Senator Frist could have gotten them confused. I mean they are so close. Hippocrate. Hypocrite.

“Hmmm… Do no harm. Hide behind false pretences. Now which one was it? …”

Anyhow it does not seem that Dr. Frist is a Park Paradigm reader…or if he is, the legalize, regulate and tax message failed miserably to resonate with him. The Economist does a great job articulating this position in a leader this week (although with the parochial “our-way-or-the-highway” mindset seemingly so prevalent on the Hill these days, a remonstration from such a foreign, high-faluting journal such as The Economist will probably been worn as a badge of honour by the Deliverance gang in Congress…):

Internet gambling is good for consumers. Too bad America wants to ban it

THE spread of the internet has made the online gambler king. The emergence of large online gambling companies has slashed gaming operators’ margins and driven up payout ratios for gamblers. And the punters have embraced it in their millions, especially in America, where illegal gambling has long flourished. Last year 12m Americans placed about $6 billion in online bets, half the world’s total.

You might have hoped politicians would greet such a demonstration of popularity with moderation—welcoming online gambling’s benefits and curbing its inevitable excesses. Instead they have put all their chips on red. Last weekend Congress passed a bill that will stop banks making payments to online gambling sites, adding to an already formidable legislative arsenal that outlaws most online gaming.

Given America’s tolerance of many other forms of gambling including horse racing and casinos, that looks like hypocrisy. Worse still, the new bill is self-defeating. It will leave the people determined to bet—the very group most vulnerable to gambling’s excesses—more open to predation from the unscrupulous online gambling joints that lawmakers most fear.

In an accompanying article the Economist also points out that there is now a real possibility that the oligopoly US gaming providers will now be able to buy up the (largely UK and European) leading internet firms at substantially lower valuations and then lobby for a legitimization of their activities:

Even America’s casinos, which long campaigned for the prohibition of online gambling for fear it would cannibalise their business, have begun to lean towards legalisation because they see attempts at prohibition as futile. Many now think that online offerings may help them attract customers. That realisation seems to be reflected in the valuations of American casinos: a group of private equity investors is offering just over $15 billion to buy Harrah’s, the world’s largest casino operator.

One of the more ironic consequences of the new law is that it may have made British-based online gambling companies vulnerable to takeover by America’s casino groups. Not only have the firms’ share prices fallen heavily, but their withdrawal from the United States has legitimised them as prey to American operators seeking to quickly obtain online expertise and knowledge of overseas markets.

If such acquisitions come to pass, it seems more than likely that American online gambling firms would begin to lobby American politicians to legalise online gambling. Thus, America’s prohibition may ultimately have the unexpected consequence of moving the country one step closer to legalising online gambling.

Far fetched? I doubt you’d find many layers on odds longer than 2 to 1…

Grant Clelland, Deputy Editor of the Financial News also chimes in with an eloquent articulation of the great American double-standard:

When a continental European country takes action to protect its industry from external competition, it is called economic nationalism. When the US does the same, we are meant to believe it is about preserving the fabric of society.

…Politically inspired legislation is hardly confined to the US, but the double standards on display are rivalled only by the French government. The law’s backers may rail about the pernicious effects of online gambling, but they seem happy with gambling itself. Groups such as Las Vegas Sands, Harrah’s and MGM Mirage are world leaders. Yet there has been no bill proposed to congress calling for the demolition of Atlantic City or Las Vegas.

But the bigger issue has nothing to do with online gaming, however much you may dislike the business and disagree with the almost obscene sums made by some of its executives at the expense of deluded punters. It is the latest example of US economic nationalism and, most damaging of all, the creep of extra-territorial legislation. This scores easy points at home without any perceptible short-term economic impact on US companies or their employees. Think back to the shameful row over the US congress blocking the acquisition of some of its ports by a company that had the misfortune to be based in Dubai (an ally of the US). Or to the tentacles of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act stretching around the world.

If it were a German firm blocking a US biotech company from selling genetically modified seeds in Europe, Washington would shout “protectionism”. Indeed, last week, it did: the US urged the European Union to speed up its process for approving new GM products, blaming “unjustified and politically motivated delays”.

The apparent urge of the US administration to apply double standards and make the country as unfriendly a place as possible for international businesses is proving increasingly embarrassing to its companies and investment banks. Economic nationalism and extra-territorial regulation – in Europe or the US – should be resisted. It may win elections, but in the long run it undermines economic growth. In the case of gambling, it is likely to have as little permanent impact as prohibition, which in the US lasted just 13 years.

Yet another example of regulatory capture and oligopolistic behavior in the ostensible land of free markets. But just as London is slowly but surely positioning itself as the premier world centre for international finance - and this despite not having the massive advantage conferred upon New York and Chicago by having the world’s largest economy as a home market, the UK government has clearly sensed an opportunity to position itself as the “world leader” in Internet gambling - and indeed as witnessed by the fantastic growth of firms such as IG Index and CMC Markets, it will almost certainly lead innovation in the broader transformation and democratisation of markets in risk management and transference in the coming decades. As reader Ralph points out in his comment here, this spirit of innovation and risk taking (management) has prevailed in the UK for centuries and was at the heart of the founding of the Lloyd’s insurance market in the 17th century.

That same spirit is evident in the rise and rise of the world’s fastest growing exchange - an exchange that does not allow any custom from the US - and is based in the UK. The LSE? Aim? No…Betfair. Having just released their annual results for the year ended April 2006 (ie before the World Cup in June which alone generated 11 million trades), the private company continues to grow, with revenues up 36% and pre-tax profits up 65%. With a reported 160,000 active monthly users and approaching 1 million total registered customers, the exchange executed 1.3 billion trades during the year. That is on average 3.5 million trades per day (365 days per year) or almost 2500 trades per minute 24 hours a day. Without a single trade coming from the largest economy in the world… Not bad. Especially when you consider that - unlike their more traditional ‘financial’ exchange brethren - they operate 24/7 and indeed weekends are their busiest times. Ask any CTO of a financial exchange or investment bank if they would fancy not having 52 weekends a year of downtime to maintain the infrastructure.

I can already hear the cries from Wall Street rushing to the defense of the history and stature of its markets. Markets that transformed the world economy and proudly flew the capitalist standard, helping to create the engines of growth that have given us previously unknown wealth and prosperity. Well sure. But I wonder if Senator Frist had been around at the time, if he wouldn’t have chopped down that Buttonwood Tree and put an end to the scruffy and speculative scrum that became the NYSE before it “dashed dreams and frayed the fabric of society.”

Hippocratic Bill…
h i p p o-cratic.

If a disruptive technology is developed…

Blogged in Ideas, Trading, betting, etc., *, Sports by Sean Wednesday September 20, 2006

…outside of the Northern California and no one in the Valley had already thought of it is it still a disruption?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge admirer of the entrepreneurial and innovative and generally open-minded spirit that reigns on the West Coast but I’d be lying if the implicit belief of its denizens that everything is thought of first or done best in the ‘valley’ isn’t a just a bit exasperating…

Ross and JP simultaneously sent me a link to Mr. Arrington’s breathless post entitled: “PicksPal Could Disrupt Sports Betting Markets.” Pul-lease… The sports betting market was well and truly disrupted (in the Google sense of the word) 5 years ago (!!!) when the world (ahem…except for the US, bless) was introduced to Betfair. In the United Kingdom. I guess I shouldn’t be too harsh as Betfair has chosen to take a very conservative approach and has never accepted any business from the US, but follow-on competitors like TradeSports have so he shouldn’t be ignorant to the whole idea of a sports exchange. And given the wealth of predicition market sites and ideas (however hobbled the actual markets themselves might be by the luddite American polity), his wide-eyed appreciation of PicksPal is at best a case of post first, search later.

I am saved the effort of a technical critique of the relative merits and/or lack thereof by the wise crowd that has already contributed a large number of concise and accurate criticisms in the comment to the original post, but I would like to take the opportunity to (once again) highlight the blatant hypocrisy brought forth by this example.

Am I the only one who finds it ridiculous that sites like PicksPal are obliged to play for points and prizes instead of money? Here’s a happy customer quote on their homepage:

“It came down to the last field goal banging off the left upright, but I bagged an HDTV. Awesome.”- GoodLow, Dallas

Hello? Anyone ever hear of eBay? So does old GoodLow need to sign a waiver promising not to take his HDTV and monetize it on eBay? I hope the folks at PicksPal give me some shares in the company for giving them the idea to tack-on an eBay selling service onto their site and automate the process for their customers, taking a nice commission along the way. Also implicit in their business model is the ‘fact’ that tens of millions of Americans bet on sports often (think March Madness, Super Bowl, etc.) in office pools and amongst friends but do so illegally. I guess there is no appetite to throw half the country in jail, probably not a big vote-winner… As far as I can tell the fabric of American society has yet to be irreparably destroyed by Marge taking Pittsburg and the points on Sunday…but perhaps the fact that much of this illegal trading - oops sorry betting - happens in the office and not while people are “in their bathrobes” is of huge comfort to Congressman Frank Wolf and his colleagues.

If you haven’t clicked through to read the TechCrunch post (linked to above), it highlights that PicksPal will be selling the picks of their best predictors. Aside from the problems of randomness (see the TechCrunch comments for explanation) assume there really are people that are expert at picking winners and losers. Unless they move to Las Vegas, the US does not allow them to make a legitimate living from their expertise. Because they are knowledgeable about say,basketball rather than interest rates or precious metals or natural gas (sorry couldn’t resist!), the US government doesn’t allow them the opportunity to start a hedgefund, live in Greenwich and live happily ever after on 2 and 20. ;)

Hey it’s not just the US either, France is getting into the prohibition game too, arresting the joint-CEOs of Bwin a couple days ago.

Of course it’s all about money. Incumbents wanting to keep their rents. Governments wanting their vig. Legalize, regulate and tax. It worked (-ish) for financial and commodity markets. It will work for these markets. The faster it gets done the better off all will be. Hell, the tax take from legitimizing March Madness alone might close the US budget deficit!

Burgenstock Notes, Day 3

Blogged in Markets, Trading, betting, etc., *, Sports by Sean Friday September 8, 2006

Peter Bennett (HCL Technologies) opened the afternoon session with ‘Capital Markets – What next?’ or ‘Where are the gorillas?’:

- exponential growth (in trading), this is a positive feedback phenomenon
- unchecked this can be very dangerous for any system and can lead to instability (bubbles and crashes)
- did a neat simulation using iThink modelling tool
- by 2010 most trading will be computer-to-computer
- order-to-trade ratio is growing exponentially, transaction rates are becoming more granular (order-book changing constantly) – will lead to high risk of running out of capacity

_____________

This was followed by a panel discussing the viability of exchange traded credit derivatives:

Richard Stuart-Reckling (Morgan Stanley)
- claims operational risk issues are being solved
- is customer financing more or less advantageous? (OTC vs ET)
- still some important technical issues are not yet resolved (devil is in the detail)

Gary Smith (ICAP)
- welcomes new products, increasing volumes benefit all
- would need to be supported by the dealers to be successful

Robert Ray (CBOT)
- US is behind with respect to the development of listed credit product
- market needs more transparency
- US dealers very much against the introduction of a listed product
- opportunity exists to introduce clearing into OTC markets
- is ultimately inevitable

Brendan Bradley (Eurex)
- focus is on credit indices, already low margin/high volume
- exchange traded contracts are complimentary to OTC markets
- very close to launching a contract

_________

The last panel of the day - and the conference - was ‘Sports trading revisited - coming of age?’ and included yours truly (!)

We were extremely fortunate to have Michael Mainelli moderate the panel. His seminal paper “Betting on the future: Online gambling goes mainstream financial” published in 2004 is required reading for anyone who wants to understand the interelationships between betting, trading and insurance and the potential of these new online betting markets to fundamentally transform financial markets over time. I was joined by Mark Davies (Betfair), Chris Shillington (Cantor Spreadfair) and Dr. Jorg Franke (Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG) who was the driving force behind creating the Deutsche Terminbörse (German Futures and Options Exchange, later becoming Eurex after merging with the Swiss derivatives exchange.) He reminded the audience that when he was launching DTB 16 years ago, he met significant resistance with many people accusing him of “running a casino” (obviously with a pejorative bent!) Today, Eurex is one of the most successful financial exchanges in the world and I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone in the market who thinks the markets would be better off without it (well excluding perhaps the folks over at Liffe! ;) ) For those of you not familiar with financial futures markets, the long term government bond future known as the Bund contract is one of the most traded contracts in the world; indeed in 2005 Eurex traded over 1.25 trillion contracts.

I tried to make two main points. One is that gambling vs trading is an irrelevant frame insofar as the distinction between the two is made as a function of the underlying (sports, shares, commodities, …) and so the emotive response to condemn ‘casinos’ is not based in rational reasoning. The second was that ‘betting markets’ were better placed (than traditional financial markets and exchanges, mini contracts notwithstanding) to aggregate individual/consumer/SME risk appetite and that the granularity and heterogeneity gained by including these participants in global risk markets was beneficial for everyone. Indeed, I see betting markets as potentially highly complimentary to the major financial exchanges as they could act as aggregators and increase interest, liquidity and volumes for all.

There was also a question as to the virtue / value of sports as an underlying. The panel made the point that there were very real economic benefits to providing markets in sporting outcomes and Michael cited a number of specific real world examples (sponsors hedging performance risk, etc.) Like it or not, sports is a multi-hundred billion dollar business around the globe.

One member of the audience made a very good point that perhaps it would be useful to try and reframe the debate away from ‘moralistic’ or values based judgements to educating the public as to the potential benefits and drew a very interesting parallel to the NYSE who, according to him spent 50 years (from 1920s to the 70s) gaining acceptance for the value of secondary equity markets. Hopefully this time it won’t take 50 years!

I hope that the established financial and exchange community will embrace our arguments and help rather than fight the development of these new event markets. It is intellectually bankrupt not to. Indeed fantastic initiatives like the CME’s successful launches of weather and property derivatives should help underline the hypocrisy latent in the hostile attitudes that continue to exist - especially in the US Congress - to ‘betting’ exchanges and markets. I’m sure the folks on the hill will listen to the CME, will they be enlightened and take leadership on this? I’m sure a CME Super Bowl contract would be a success…

But given recent events, there is obviously some work to do. And someone needs to tell Congressman Frank Wolf that you can trade shares in your bathrobe (click here to watch Jon Stewart at his finest, you won’t be disappointed) too…